Was Russia Lying in Wait to Attack Georgia?

Facts:

1. When this war began, Georgia’s military forces were in Iraq fighting alongside American and British soldiers. They were not at home, ready to fight to win back South Ossetia. In addition, with Georgia’s best troops in Iraq, their central military base in Gori was also weakened.
2. Russia restricted journalists going into South Ossieta. One popular Russian journalist and blogger, however, went into Tskhinvali only hours before the fighting broke out. Western journalists were not allowed into the area.
3. August is the last month the Russian troops and tanks can safely get through the mountain passes into Georgia.
4. Even though Russia and the Ossetians claim that there are 2,000 South Ossetians dead, Human Rights Watch has found only 44.
5. Human Rights Watch earlier accused Russia of being “indirectly responsible” for massive ethnic cleansing of Georgians in South Ossetia.

Timeline:

• Post-Soviet Union: Georgian boundaries are drawn and include Abkhazia and South Ossetian regions.
• 11/23/03: Rose Revolution (Saakashvili becomes president of Georgia). Russia reacts by strengthening its backing of separatist regions in Georgia.
• 3/6/08: Russia rebuked CIS sanctions against Abkhazia
• 3/21/08: Kremlin-controlled State Duma (a section of Russian parliament) passed a resolution recognizing Abkhazian and South Ossetian sovereignty.
• 4/3/08: Putin promised “material support” to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, pronouncing that Georgia’s aspiration for “speedy Atlantic integration” endangered security.
• 4/11/08: Russia’s top military commander, Yuri Baluyevsky, threatened “military action to defend our interests near our borders” if Georgia and/or Ukraine joined NATO.
• 4/16/08: Putin recognized Abkhazian and South Ossetian documentation as Russian, effectively integrating these two territories into Russia and infuriating Georgia.
• May 2008: Russia shot down several Georgian unmanned aerial vehicles and massed the Russian peacekeepers and equipment.
• 5/31/08: Railroad troops moved in to repair the tracks south of Sokhumi (in Abkhazia).
• July 2008: Russia moves air forces from all over Russia to the Caucusus.
• Mid-July 2008: Russia launched the biggest military exercise in the North Caucusus since Chechnya, named “Kavkaz 2008.”
• 7/30/08: Railroad repair completed south of Sokhumi.
• Early August 2008: Russia finishes their “Kavkaz 2008” military exercises just across the Georgian border, in which they train for this very scenario. Ships were loaded, ground troops were ready to go, and the railroad had been repaired. Russia had 10,000+ troops at the ready, with fleets already in the Black Sea. Military advisors advise that this many troops cannot be held for long periods of time in 24-hour battle readiness.
• Early August 2008: Russia puts extra troops in South Ossetia.
• 8/3/08: South Ossetian “president” Kokoity announces that [Ossetian] women and children should leave South Ossetia, but encouraging all civilians who didn’t have fighting capabilities to leave. These South Ossetians were transported to North Ossetia.
• 8/3/08: Russia sends in “irregulars” (Ingush, Chechen, Ossetian & Cossack “thugs”), who enter the region and spread out into the countryside. At this time, they don’t do anything, they’re only present.
• South Ossetia Aside: Tskhinvali (the South Ossetian capitol) is populated by Ossetians with Georgian villages lining the outskirts in a crescent shape. Under the 1994 peace accord, Georgian and Russian peacekeepers were stationed there to keep the peace between the groups. It is also important to know that South Ossetia is a smuggler’s paradise. As such, if you’re a young man there, your choice is to live in poverty or join the Ossetian militia.
• 8/5/08: Ossetian militia and other irregulars shelled Georgian villages, shooting with 120mm guns. Under the peace accord, no one in the region was allowed guns bigger than 80mm.
• 8/6/08: The shelling intensifies and the South Ossetian militias bomb Georgian peacekeepers with road bombs. They also destroy Georgian’s houses, gas lines, roads, yards and animals. Georgian peacekeepers fight back. Cease fires were attempted but thwarted.
• 8/7/08: Ossetians launch an all-out attack on Georgian villages (3 of which have already been demolished) and Russia begins moving troops through the Roki tunnel into South Ossetia.
• Evening of 8/7/08: Saakashvili received information that a large Russian column is on the move into South Ossetia through the Roki Tunnel.
• 8/8/08: Georgian military moves into South Ossetia to stop the Russian advance through the Roki tunnel. The Georgians must travel through Tskhinvali to get to the Russian advance, and here is where the news finds the conflict, and with the help of Russian propaganda, naming a Georgian attack on Tskhinvali as the “beginning” of the war.
  
  The days that followed: Within 12 hours, Russia’s 58th launched a full “response:” This army is said to be Russia’s best trained and most combat-ready army. It was formed in 1995 specifically for operations in Chechnya and is now based in North Ossetia. It deployed 15,000 infantry men, 150 tanks (all through the Roki tunnel) and 1,000 airborne and naval forces. It proceeded to target and destroy all of Georgia’s military facilities, bases, and as much heavy equipment as possible. They even used cyber-warfare to block and hack into Georgian websites.
  
  The rest is written in most news outlets.
  
  Danger in the future:
  
  A Tochka-U missile system has now been moved into Georgian territory through the Roki tunnel. From Tskhinvali, the Tochka-U (used in Chechnya) could hit Tbilisi and the surrounding areas. (range: 110 km) (blanket range: 3-7 hectares, depending on the size of the missile). As of 8/14/08, Abkhaz separatists claim these missiles were launched from Abkhazia on targets in Western Georgia. Now, with one in South Ossetia, rumor holds it that Russia will put this missile in the hands of South Ossetians to control it.
  
  Domino Effect: It’s no leap to conclude that Moscow’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is payback for the West’s recognition of Kosovo. However, Russia’s defense that they were simply defending a smaller separatist region from big bad Georgia may well come back to bit them. With this war, Russia has effectively placed a time bomb for itself, giving other separatist groups inside Russia carte blanche to rise up against Russia for their own independence, which is beginning to happen already. I wonder whether this too was planned? And if so, what Russia hopes to see as the outcome…

History of South Ossetia and its Russian "peacekeepers"

Before the creation of the Soviet Union, South Ossetia didn't exist. There was only "Ossetia," and it was NORTH of the Caucuses (Georgia is SOUTH of the Caucuses), inside of a region that we (and Georgians) know as Russia. When the Soviets rolled tanks into and seized Georgia by force, they created "South Ossetia" in Georgia, moving Ossetians in to enjoy the beauty of Georgia, which, at the time, had become usurped by the USSR. Ossetians have never been Georgian. South Ossetians are really Ossetians who moved into the region during Communism and this is why they are allied with Russia today.

Russia has used the separatist regions (that they created in the early 1920's) to continue their strategy of keeping Georgia "imbalanced," to put it nicely. They finance regular revolts in these areas, pass out Russian passports to good separatists and even allow the killing of people with Georgian last names (for which Russia is currently being investigated for ethnic cleansing at the Hague in the Netherlands).

"But Russia is supposed to be a peacekeeper in the area!" you say. Aye, here's the rub: Russia financed revolts after the fall of the Soviet Union to overthrow Georgia's democratically elected president at the time. The president fled, fearing the worst, and the Russian-financed revolutionaries instilled their own president, former USSR Minister Edvard Shevardnadze. Shevardnadze, being a Russian implant himself, had no problem agreeing to Russia as a peacekeeper in those regions.

Only since 2003 has Georgia been led by a democratic leader. From the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990's until then, Georgia continued to be under the thumb of Russia. We are now seeing an independent Georgia wanting its land back from Russia's usurpation of it centuries ago.

History of the relationship between Russia & Georgia

Since B.C. times, huge empires have fought over the Caucuses and Georgia in particular. Throughout history, Georgia has appealed to greater powers for protection but never assimilation, including Rome, Persia, and Russia.

Georgia's first appeal to Russia happened in the 18th Century when Georgia needed to get out of the hands of Persia, who had installed their Shahs as leaders there. Closely tied to their Christian religion, and feeling bound by Persia's tightening grip, Georgia asked Russia (another Christian nation) to be an ally and protector of its borders. Russia agreed and they entered into a treaty wherein Russia agreed to protect Georgia and maintain control over foreign relations but Georgia could otherwise maintain its independence and autonomy. Angered by this treaty, the Muslims attacked. Russia, however, didn't come to Georgia's aid, as it was using Georgian troops elsewhere at the time.

Frustrated by Russia’s disinterest in protecting Georgia, the Georgian king started plans to appeal to another empire for protection. However, Georgia's plans were cut short in December of 1800, when the king died. Only one month later, Russia declared Georgia abolished and annexed it to Russia, using Georgians as slave labor to build their military highways through the Caucuses and through Georgia. These highways are still used today and are the main reason Russia can roll tanks into Georgia. Georgians revolted, along with many Russian intelligentsia including Tolstoy but to no avail.

Georgia struggled for over 100 years to gain independence from Russia, finally seizing their opportunity in March of 1917 when the Tsar was overthrown. They established an interim government and began their long-awaited self-governance as a social democracy. Seven months later, however, in October of 1917, Lenin's Bolsheviks overthrew the Georgian government and Russia seized Georgia again. Georgians, of course, resisted, but by that time, their soldiers had been enveloped by the Russian army and Georgia had no military defenses left of their own to stand up against Russia.

In early 1918, Russian soldiers marched into Tbilisi and forced the government to resign.

Georgia then turned to Germany for support and got it. However, as soon as Georgia could declare formal independence, Germany found itself in dire straits, losing WWI, and couldn't carry out its promises to Georgia.

Just after WWI, Georgia had another short chance to re-instate their autonomy and constitution, which they did as of February 21, 1921. Four days later, however, on February 25, 1921, the Red Army rolled their tanks into Georgia and took it for their own. Again. In December of that year, the USSR appeared on the world map, claiming four resistant nations as their own: Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

At that time, the Bolsheviks set up three "autonomous" territories within Georgia: Ajara, South Ossetia & Abkhazia. These regions are politically and geographically desirable for Russia to maintain military control of: Ajara in the Southwest on the Black Sea, bordering Turkey; South Ossettia in the North, bordering Russia and one of the only access points into Russia through the caucuses; and Abkhazia in the Northwest, also on the Black Sea, bordering Ukraine and also protecting another mountain pass through the giant Caucuses. Abkhazia is also a favorite Russian vacation spot on the Black Sea.

For over 60 years, the Georgians endured Soviet Rule, but in April of 1989, Georgia staged a peaceful demonstration against communism. In response to the uprising, Soviet troops rolled tanks into Tbilisi, killing 19 and injuring thousands more. My husband was there.

In April of 1991, on the 2-year anniversary of the demonstration, Georgia declared sovereignty and independence, reinstating the 1918-1921 Georgian State and electing their first president.

The USSR refused to recognize Georgia's independence, but was weakening. It officially disintegrated on December 21, 1991, forming a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in its place. Not surprisingly, Georgia refused to become a member.

The day after the CIS was formed, Russia again swatted their enormous hand at Georgia, financing revolts in Tbilisi and Georgia's elected president fled to Chechnya. The revolutionaries (backed by Russia) took over the government and appointed Shevardnadze (former USSR minister) as the new president.

With Russia in power again under the guise of president Shevardnadze, Russia was able to bring “peacekeepers” into the separatist regions in 1992, allegedly to keep the peace between separatists and Georgians, but instead, they formed allegiances with the separatists, passing out Russian passports to them, financing continued revolts against Georgia, and ousting anyone with a Georgian last name (approximately 300,000 people).

In Abkhazia at this time, I am told that it was acceptable for an Abkhazian or Russian to kill anyone with a Georgian last name. Thousands of Georgian refugees escaped into the mountains and forests, eventually making their way out of Abkhazia on foot to seek safety in Georgia. I know a few refugees from Abkhazia who would love to go back to their homes but, to this day, cannot, due to the Russian-backed separatists there.

Georgia finally had a successful nonviolent revolution in 2003 (the Rose Revolution) led by Michael Saakashvili, who was educated in the U.S. and vowed to make Georgia into the democratic state that Russia had never allowed it to be. The revolution occurred after an obviously (and now admittedly) rigged vote that Shevernadze won, Saakashvili and his revolutionaries gathered on the steps of parliament with roses instead of weapons.

Shevernadze’s guards were told to ward off revolutionaries, but instead, they too crossed the lines and joined the nonviolent revolt. Shevernadze, seeing he had no choice, stepped down gracefully and handed the presidency over to Saakashvili, who, much to Russia’s chagrin, remains president to this day.

Saakahsvili was recently re-elected. I was in Georgia for the campaign. A large part of Saakashvili's campaign platform rested on taking back the three separatist regions created by Russia so long ago including Abkhazia and South Ossetia and reinstating a unified Georgia. Not surprisingly, he won again.

Let Not History Repeat Itself

I found this archive from 1924: a plea to the U.S. to stop Russian invasion of Georgia. http://archive.timesonline.co.uk/tol/viewArticle.arc?articleId=ARCHIVE-The_Times-1924-09-27-08-001&pageId=ARCHIVE-The_Times-1924-09-27-08&manualTopicId=false

Excerpt from Medvedev's remarks from a Moscow meeting 8/11. Here's the Rub:

"Russia has historically always been the guarantor of the security of the peoples of the Caucasus. This is our mission and our duty. We have never been just passive observers in this region and never will be."

Excerpt from today's Wall Street Journal:

Russia's emphasis on the right to secede by restive regions of Georgia marks an abrupt turn away from a principal of territorial integrity championed in the past by Moscow, at least with regard to its own turf. Russia fought two wars in Chechnya to halt that region from breaking away from Russia. Mr. Putin, a fierce foe of Chechen separatism, used his first full day as president back in 2000 to visit the Chechen capital Grozny and cheer Russian forces there. He handed out medals and knives to soldiers.

Russia's embrace of the right to redraw boundaries has sent shivers through countries that were born when the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991. Russia's handling of the crisis in Georgia, is "worrisome," said Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves in a phone interview. He added that he phoned Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on the first day of the conflict to express his support. "That's why we wanted to be in NATO. That's why Georgia wanted to be in NATO. And still does."

Mr. Ilves said Russia's argument that it is merely responding to a Georgian attack on South Ossetia is hard to believe. "This required a long-term, massive buildup with planning, so it's difficult to say this is a reaction to anything. This was fairly well coordinated, with ships coming from Sevastopol and 10,000 troops moved in in a matter of a day."

Russia's European neighbors, most of them former Soviet republics, have long accused Moscow of trying to undermine their independence by supporting ethnic Russians or those with Russian passports living outside Russia.

In recent years, for example, Russia has effectively bypassed Latvia as a route for its oil exports amid allegations that Riga is mistreating ethnic Russians living there. Russia sharply curtailed oil exports through Estonia last year, after the government there moved a Soviet monument from the center of the capital, Tallinn.

Ukraine, another former Soviet republic, has also had tense relations with Moscow. Ukraine's president, Viktor Yushchenko, nearly died from dioxin poisoning in 2004 while running against a pro-Russian presidential candidate -- a poisoning that Mr. Yushchenko has linked to Russia. Moscow denies any involvement.

Mr. Yushchenko has developed close personal ties with Georgia's president, Mr. Saakashvili, a relationship cemented by the feeling that they share a common adversary in Moscow.
"They often call one another, give advice to one another," said Ivan Safranchuk, a professor at Moscow's Institute of International Relations. "The personal relationship is strong."

Mr. Yushchenko has already ordered his government to provide humanitarian assistance to Georgia. Ukraine is likely to step up pressure on Russia for deploying part of its Black Sea fleet, now based in a Ukrainian port in the Crimea, off the Georgian coast of Abkhazia. The fleet's presence in the Crimea is a divisive issue in Ukraine, with some Ukrainians calling for its eviction, and ethnic Russians calling for it to remain.

After he was elected president, Mr. Yushchenko called for closer relations with Europe, and to pursue eventual NATO membership, something that Georgia also wants. But Ukraine's room for independent action is limited by Russia's clout. When Ukraine tried to hold military exercises off the coast of Crimea two years ago, ethnic Russians protested loudly. The maneuvers were canceled.